7 short rebound in 6 years, investors worried about steel prices fell back-sichen

6 times in 7 short rebound, investors worry about steel prices fell again, the Securities Times reporter Wei Shuguang credit easing led to the demand stimulus expectations, the steel industry chain rebounded most eye-catching. Among them, iron ore and rebar major contract futures have increased by nearly 30% and 20%, respectively, compared with 3 months ago lows. However, in the past 6 years, the domestic steel prices have appeared 7 times as obvious and transient rebound, which makes the market parties tend to be cautious. Wang Pei, a researcher at Hong Tao investment consulting company, said that if the financial data in January indicates that the credit cycle has begun to expand again, a substantial rebound in the real economy is only a matter of time, and it is not coming to an end in the short term. Wang Pei said that there is a close linkage between many commodity prices and the long end interest rate changes caused by the expansion of the money supply, such as the price difference between the month and the month of the thread. Therefore, once the investor’s economic expectations begin to warm, the forward price of the thread can continue to get emotional support. At the same time, the current spot thread prices are also generally showing a strong pattern. And the early stage has been continuously compressed low social inventory is also an important reason to support the current rebound in the price of the thread. It is understood that the current number of coking plant in Shanxi steel production and went around to understand the spring site construction. Because of the high price of steel, steel mills can bring considerable profits, if a large area of steel production, the demand for Coke will also a pull, coupled with their inventory is not high, coking enterprises generally believe that the short-term decline is difficult. At present, most of the domestic coal mines are still not normal production, are in the stage of consumption inventory, coking plant procurement sources of tension, and even some coking plants and therefore limited production, part of the coking coal has 10 yuan ~15 yuan ton rise." Shanxi Fenwei energy analyst Wang Xufeng said, is expected in early March to the normal production of coal mine, and all returned to normal, the contradiction between supply and demand will appear. But from the point of view of sales strategy, manufacturers are still not optimistic about the late demand, reflected in the current strong prices, overweight production, sales and shipment. Statistics also show that in the past 6 years, the domestic steel prices appear similar obvious rebound situation, a total of 7 times, respectively, in March 2012 ~4 months, September 2012 ~2013 January, 2013 7~8 months, March 2014 ~4 months, October 2014 ~11 months, July 2015 ~8 months. The rebound in steel prices can change the fate of the rebound limit, the market parties are very cautious. "Supply, inventory is low, but in the demand for better, further increase the possibility of price rebound, credit easing caused by demand stimulus expectations is the fundamental reason for the rebound of the steel industry chain."." Changjiang Securities analyst Wang Hetao said that the credit easing superimposed the real estate stimulus policy, but decided that the long-term development of real estate factors did not change fundamentally, therefore, the current round of steel prices is still only a rebound in the downward trend in the demand cycle. Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion

6年出现7次短暂反弹投资者担忧钢价重回下跌   证券时报记者 魏书光   信贷宽松导致的需求刺激预期下,钢铁产业链反弹最为抢眼。其中,铁矿石和螺纹钢主力合约期货已经分别较3个月前的低点上涨近30%和20%。但是,过去6年时间,国内钢价出现7次类似较为明显而短暂的反弹,这让市场各方偏向于谨慎。   弘则弥道投资咨询公司研究员王沛表示,如果1月的金融数据预示着信用周期重新开始扩张,那么实体经济出现一个相当大量级的反弹只是时间问题,并且短期内并未到尾声。   王沛称,很多商品价格与货币投放扩张带来的长端利率变化之间存在着紧密联动性,譬如螺纹的远月和近月之间的价差。因此一旦投资者的经济预期开始转暖,螺纹的远期价格也能继续得到情绪上的支撑。同时,当前各地的螺纹现货价格也都还整体呈现偏强的格局。而前期已经被持续压缩的低社会库存也是支撑当前螺纹价格反弹的重要原因。   据了解,目前山西多家焦化厂在奔赴各地了解钢厂复产情况和春季工地开工情况。由于当前钢材价格较高,钢厂利润可观,如果能带来大面积的钢厂复产,对焦炭需求势必也是一个拉动,再加上自身库存不高,焦化企业普遍认为短期跌价难。   “目前国内大部分的煤矿仍旧未正常生产,都处在消耗库存的阶段,焦化厂采购货源紧张,甚至有部分焦化厂因此而限产,部分地区焦煤有10元~15元 吨的提涨。”山西汾渭能源中心分析师王旭峰说,预计3月初煤矿可以正常生产,等一切恢复正常,供需矛盾才会重新显现。但从销售策略上看,生产商仍旧不看好后期的需求,体现在当前价格坚挺的时候,加码生产销售出货。   统计数据也显示,过去6年里,国内钢价出现类似较为明显反弹的情形共有7次,分别是2012年3月~4月、2012年9月~2013年1月、2013年7~8月、2014年3月~4月、2014年10月~11月、2015年7月~8月。这次钢材价格反弹能否改变反弹力度受限的宿命,市场各方十分谨慎。   “供给、库存处于低位只是在需求好转时进一步增大了价格反弹的可能性,信贷宽松导致的需求刺激预期才是本轮钢铁产业链反弹的根本原因。”长江证券分析师王鹤涛表示,此次信贷宽松叠加了地产刺激政策,但决定地产中长期发展的因素并未发生根本转变,因此,本轮钢价上涨仍然只是一次需求周期下行趋势中的反弹。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: